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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 63,2x - 69,8x | 66,5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 44,3x - 49,0x | 46,7x |
Fair Value | ¥12,85 - ¥13,80 | ¥13,32 |
Upside | -24,7% - -19,1% | -21,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. | 300394 | SZSE:300394 |
Skyworth Digital Co., Ltd. | 810 | SZSE:000810 |
Chengdu Jiafaantai Education Technology Co.,Ltd. | 300559 | SZSE:300559 |
Sumavision Technologies Co.,Ltd. | 300079 | SZSE:300079 |
Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co., Ltd. | 300136 | SZSE:300136 |
Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd | 300183 | SZSE:300183 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
300394 | 810 | 300559 | 300079 | 300136 | 300183 | ||
SZSE:300394 | SZSE:000810 | SZSE:300559 | SZSE:300079 | SZSE:300136 | SZSE:300183 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 50.8% | -17.9% | -22.9% | -22.2% | -4.3% | -16.5% | |
3Y CAGR | 59.8% | -4.6% | -10.4% | -40.3% | 10.8% | -22.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 50.3% | -73.9% | -72.0% | 257.0% | -9.1% | -5.5% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 40.9% | 5.2% | 23.5% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 14.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 44.2% | 5.6% | 24.6% | -4.1% | 13.2% | 7.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 47.1% | 3.4% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 11.9% | 6.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 46.6% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 6.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 10.75x | 1.31x | 10.08x | 6.87x | 2.39x | 5.81x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 23.1x | 69.3x | 86.3x | 90.4x | 22.4x | 96.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 25.1x | 177.9x | 246.3x | -135.3x | 49.0x | 209.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.4x | 69.3x | 90.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.4x | 42.6x | 77.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 63.2x | 66.5x | 69.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 64 | 64 | 64 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,054 | 4,268 | 4,481 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,785 | 1,785 | 1,785 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 5,840 | 6,053 | 6,266 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 462.6 | 462.6 | 462.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 12.62 | 13.08 | 13.55 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.62 | 13.08 | 13.55 | 17.06 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -26.0% | -23.3% | -20.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 300394 | 810 | 300559 | 300079 | 300136 | 300183 | |
Enterprise Value | 36,989 | 10,637 | 3,645 | 4,715 | 20,791 | 6,107 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,520 | 3,241 | 627 | 2,301 | 1,776 | 1,767 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 7 | 256 | 64 | 721 | 554 | 25 | |
(-) Debt | (46) | (877) | 0 | 0 | (3,205) | (4) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (7) | 20 | (18) | (2) | (1) | (2) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 39,465 | 13,277 | 4,319 | 7,735 | 19,916 | 7,892 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 554.0 | 1,141.6 | 399.5 | 1,424.5 | 952.5 | 462.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 71.24 | 11.63 | 10.81 | 5.43 | 20.91 | 17.06 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 71.24 | 11.63 | 10.81 | 5.43 | 20.91 | 17.06 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |