Original-Research: Greiffenberger AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Greiffenberger AG
Unternehmen: Greiffenberger AG
ISIN: DE0005897300
Anlass der Studie: Research Update
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: EUR 7.10
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Leipold, Dominik Gerbing
* The German economy has receded for the first time in one year, by 0.2% in
the second quarter of 2014. At the same time, the German Engineering
Association (VDMA) corrected its growth forecast for 2014 from 3% to 1%.
* The weak May and a month of June far below expectations led, after a
positive first quarter of 2014, to decreasing sales for the Greiffenberger
Group in the first half of 2014, by -1.6% to EUR 75.68m (PY: EUR 76.90m).
While corporate international sales compared to the previous year period
increased by 8.7%, sales within Germany decreased by approx. 17% because of
a very hesitant order situation, particularly at the biggest subsidiary
ABM.
* The start of production in the new plant in Poland went as planned in the
first half of 2014. As estimated, after initial start-up costs in the first
half year, the new plant will not have any effect on the annual result of
the subsidiary ABM on a full-year 2014 basis and a positive net
contribution is expected from 2015.
* Because of the declining group sales, the start-up costs for the new
plant in Poland in the first half year, and the significantly increased
personnel costs, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) at EUR 0.68m
were significantly below the value of the previous year and below our
expectations.
* For the second half of 2014 we estimate a significant improvement of EBIT
through a slight growth in sales. For one, this should be achievable
through the harmonized production at the plant in Poland within the second
half of 2014 and a resulting increase in productivity and through the
optimization and efficiency measures which had already taken effect at the
half-year mark of 2014. Since the 2014 business year, because of the newly
opened plant and the fluctuating first half-year, must be seen as a sort of
transitional year for the Greiffenberger Group, we adjusted our forecasts
for the total year of 2014 accordingly.
* After a fluctuating first half of 2014, very restrained ordering
behaviour among customers in the second quarter, and a slightly overcast
outlook for the world economy in 2014, we adjusted the target price for the
share of the Greiffenberger AG from previously EUR 9.80 to EUR 7.10.
Despite the adjustment, the price target remains above the price of the
successful equity increase in April (EUR 6.00) and at the current price
level of EUR 4.73 also contains further potential for upward movement.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/12456.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach §34b Abs. 1 WpHG und FinAnV Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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