Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Merchant & Investment Banking: In-between the lines - Bernhard Eschweiler
DGAP-News: Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Merchant & Investment Banking /
Schlagwort(e): Sonstiges
Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Merchant & Investment Banking: In-between the
lines - Bernhard Eschweiler
07.10.2011 / 07:33
---------------------------------------------------------------------
- ECB still worried about inflation, but willing to provide more
liquidity
- Europe likely to move toward bank recapitalization - but not uniformly
- Business sentiment not yet gloomy enough to trigger recession in
Germany
Financial markets continue to bounce between hope and despair, but the
underlying pattern is changing. Initially, the market turmoil was
triggered by the debt problems in both the US and Europe. Then pessimism
centered mostly around Europe. Now, it is Europe's inability to solve its
problems that is dragging down the rest of the world. Today's ECB decision
did not change the situation despite the promise of unlimited liquidity
until at least the middle of next year. The escalating banking crisis
reflects both liquidity and solvency problems and is closely linked to the
sovereign debt issues in Greece and elsewhere. The Dexia incident has made
a bank recapitalization drive more likely, but decisions are not likely to
be taken swiftly and Euro-wide. Meanwhile, the economic damage becomes
visible in more and more places. Italy and Spain are set to follow Greece
and Portugal into recession. Only Germany is holding up better than
expected, but for how long?
ECB provides more liquidity but no rate cut
Today's decision by the ECB to leave policy unchanged should not have come
as a surprise despite market hopes for a rate cut. Current headline
inflation is still the most important guide for ECB policymaking. Thus,
with the latest figure back up to 3%, a rate cut was unlikely. Even so,
the ECB has clearly changed its outlook on the Euro area and is now
speaking of 'intensified downside risks'. The announcement of additional
and extended liquidity measures as well as the resumption of the covered
bond purchase program is testimony of the ECB's concerns. In our judgment,
prevailing economic pressure will reduce headline inflation in coming
months and allow the ECB to lower the policy rate toward year end. That
should be welcome news, but is unlikely to solve the sovereign and banking
crisis.
Today was also the last ECB meeting chaired by Jean-Claude Trichet. The
transition to Mario Draghi is expected to be smooth. Draghi is viewed as
capable, experienced, skillful and sufficiently independent from political
influences. However, it is to be seen whether Draghi will have the same
level of energy as Trichet, which is enormous. Whether one agrees with his
views and decisions, Trichet has worked relentlessly behind the scenes to
keep fiscal and monetary policymakers across the Euro area focused on the
issues and move the agenda forward.
Moves to calm Euro crisis likely to emerge
The Dexia incident has been a wake-up call for the political leadership
that the repercussions of the sovereign debt crisis are very serious for
the banking systems. It also highlights the information asymmetry faced by
policymakers: Dexia passed both stress tests with top grades. Moreover,
Dexia is only the peak of the iceberg. The problem is not just banks'
sovereign risk exposures but overall risk exposures in the periphery. For
French and German banks, the overall risk exposure to Greece, Ireland,
Italy, Portugal and Spain is more than 150% of their capital and more than
30% and 20% of GDP respectively. By far the most alarming risk
concentration is the exposure of French banks to Italy.
Given the information asymmetry, only mandatory across-the-board
recapitalization measures have the potential to work and calm markets (see
US TARP experience). However, a coordinated Euro-area move seems unlikely
for political as well as practical reasons. Instead, we expect individual
countries to announce independent bank recapitalization programs between
now and the end of the year. Some countries, notably the three EFSF
program countries plus Italy and Spain, will probably get support from the
EFSF. This should help stabilize markets, but is not the final solution.
The two other immediate issues are Greece and the size of the EFSF.
- Greece will get the next tranche of the rescue package with near
certainty despite current delay. Otherwise, Greece would be forced to
declare insolvency in November. Even if the Euro group decides to let
Greece fail, it would want to do so in an orderly fashion for which
there is not enough time until November. Possible, however, is that
banks will be forced to contribute more to the Greek rescue package.
That option was mentioned by German Chancellor Merkel.
- Least clear is how Euro leaders plan to bulk up the EFSF, which seems
important. Providing more capital is politically difficult, especially
in Germany, and the ECB made clear that it will not provide credit. An
alternative is a market-based solution in which the EFSF provides only
a partial guarantee. Such structures have worked in good times, but
may not do so under uncertainty.
Little signs of weakness in Germany - so far
So far, there are few signs of acute economic stress in Germany. Leading
indicators have dropped, most notably the ZEW index, but that has not yet
translated into actual weakness. Manufacturing orders dropped 1.2% in
August, but the data is volatile due to lumpy items, especially aircraft
orders. Excluding planes, ships and trains, the average of orders in July
and August stood 4.2% annualized above the second quarter. Tomorrow's
industrial production report for August is set to show a hefty drop due to
calendar distortions, but that follows a 4.5% surge in July. Average
output in July and August is likely to come in at least 10% annualized
above the second quarter. News from the labor market also
remains positive. Unemployment continued to decline and job vacancies rose
further in September. All in all, Q3 GDP is poised to surprise on the
upside. But that is no consolation if activity drops afterwards. In our
judgment, the economy is not ripe for recession, but the drop in sentiment
and the deterioration in global economic conditions can lead to a downturn.
The balance of business expectations has shifted into negative territory
according to the IFO survey, but is not sufficiently gloomy to trigger a
recession. Business expectations and assessments of current conditions
have to shift far into negative territory until year end if recession is to
follow. Otherwise, Germany may get away with just a modest slowdown, which
is still our best guess.
Disclaimer
This analysis was prepared by Bernhard Eschweiler, Senior Economic Advisor,
and was first published 7 October 2011, Silvia Quandt Research GmbH,
Grüneburgweg 18, 60322 Frankfurt is responsible for its preparation. German
Regulatory Authority: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
(BaFin), Graurheindorfer Str. 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439
Frankfurt.
Publication according to article 5 (4) no. 3 of the German Regulation
concerning the analysis of financial instruments (Finanzanalyseverordnung):
Number of recommendations Thereof recommendations for issuers to which
from Silvia Quandt Research investment banking services were provided
during
GmbH in 2011 the preceding twelve months
Buys: 99 37
Neutral: 38 1
Avoid: 6 0
Company disclosures
Article 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz)
in combination with the German regulation concerning the analysis of
financial instruments (Finanzanalyseverordnung) requires an enterprise
preparing a securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest
with respect to the company or companies that are the subject of the
analysis. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist, in particular, if an
enterprise preparing a security analysis:
(a) holds more than 5 % of the share capital of the company or companies
analysed;
(b) has lead managed or co-lead managed a public offering of the
securities of the company or companies in the previous 12 months;
(c) has provided investment banking services for the company or companies
analysed during the last 12 months for which a compensation has been or
will be paid;
(d) is serving as a liquidity provider for the company's securities by
issuing buy and sell orders;
(e) is party to an agreement with the company or companies that is the
subject of the analysis relating to the production of the recommendation;
(f) or the analyst covering the issue has other significant financial
interests with respect to the company or companies that are the subject of
this analysis, for example holding a seat on the company's boards.
In this respective analysis the following of the above-mentioned conflicts
of interests exist: none
Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, and its affiliated
companies regularly hold shares of the analysed company or companies in
their trading portfolios. The views expressed in this analysis reflect the
personal views of the analyst about the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this
analysis. It has not been determined in advance whether and at what
intervals this report will be updated.
Equity Recommendation Definitions Silvia Quandt Research GmbH analysts rate
the shares of the companies they cover on an absolute basis using a 6 -
12-month target price. 'Buys' assume an upside of more than 10% from the
current price during the following 6 - 12-months. These securities are
expected to out-perform their respective sector indices. Securities with an
expected negative absolute performance of more than 10% and an
under-performance to their respective sector index are rated 'avoids'.
Securities where the current share price is within a 10% range of the
sector performance are rated 'neutral'. Securities prices used in this
report are closing prices of the day before publication unless a different
date is stated. With regard to unlisted securities median market prices are
used based on various important broker sources (OTC-Market).
Disclaimer This publication has been prepared and published by Silvia
Quandt Research GmbH, a subsidiary of Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG. This
publication is intended solely for distribution to professional and
business customers of Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG. It is not intended to be
distributed to private investors or private customers. Any information in
this report is based on data obtained from publicly available information
and sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees
are made by Silvia Quandt Research GmbH with regard to the accuracy or
completeness of the data or information contained in this report. The
opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgement at
this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Prior to this
publication, the analysis has not been communicated to the analysed
companies and changed subsequently. This report is for information purposes
only; it is not intended to be and should not be construed as a
recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the
securities mentioned in this report. In compliance with statutory and
regulatory provisions, Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research
GmbH have set up effective organisational and administrative arrangements
to prevent and avoid possible conflicts of interests in preparing and
transmitting analyses. These include, in particular, inhouse information
barriers (Chinese walls). These information barriers apply to any
information which is not publicly available and to which any of Silvia
Quandt & Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH or its affiliates may have
access from a business relationship with the issuer. For statutory or
contractual reasons, this information may not be used in an analysis of the
securities and is therefore not included in this report. Silvia Quandt &
Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, its affiliates and/or clients may
conduct or may have conducted transactions for their own account or for the
account of other parties with respect to the securities mentioned in this
report or related investments before the recipient has received this
report. Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH or its
affiliates, its executives, managers and employees may hold shares or
positions, possibly even short sale positions, in securities mentioned in
this report or in related investments. Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG in
particular may provide banking or other advisory services to interested
parties. Neither Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG or
its affiliates nor any of its officers, shareholders or employees accept
any liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of
this publication or its contents. Copyright and database rights protection
exists in this publication and it may not be reproduced, distributed or
published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent
of Silvia Quandt Research GmbH. All rights reserved. Any investments
referred to herein may involve significant risk, are not necessarily
available in all jurisdictions, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for
all investors. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to
herein may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. Past
performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should make
their own investment decisions without relying on this publication. Only
investors with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial matters to
evaluate the merits and risks should consider an investment in any issuer
or market discussed herein and other persons should not take any action on
the basis of this publication.
Specific notices of possible conflicts of interest with respect to issuers
or securities forming the subject of this report according to US or English
law: None
This publication is issued in the United Kingdom only to persons described
in Articles 19, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and is not intended to be distributed,
directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons (including private
investors). Neither this publication nor any copy of it may be taken or
transmitted into the United States of America or distributed, directly or
indirectly, in the United States of America.
Frankfurt am Main, 07.10.2011
Silvia Quandt Research GmbH
Grüneburgweg 1860322 Frankfurt
Tel: + 49 69 95 92 90 93 -0
Fax: + 49 69 95 92 90 93 - 11
Ende der Corporate News
---------------------------------------------------------------------
07.10.2011 Veröffentlichung einer Corporate News/Finanznachricht,
übermittelt durch die DGAP - ein Unternehmen der EquityStory AG.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber
verantwortlich.
Die DGAP Distributionsservices umfassen gesetzliche Meldepflichten,
Corporate News/Finanznachrichten und Pressemitteilungen.
Medienarchiv unter http://www.dgap-medientreff.de und
http://www.dgap.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
141584 07.10.2011
DGAP-News: Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Merchant & Investment Banking /
Schlagwort(e): Sonstiges
Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Merchant & Investment Banking: In-between the
lines - Bernhard Eschweiler
07.10.2011 / 07:33
---------------------------------------------------------------------
- ECB still worried about inflation, but willing to provide more
liquidity
- Europe likely to move toward bank recapitalization - but not uniformly
- Business sentiment not yet gloomy enough to trigger recession in
Germany
Financial markets continue to bounce between hope and despair, but the
underlying pattern is changing. Initially, the market turmoil was
triggered by the debt problems in both the US and Europe. Then pessimism
centered mostly around Europe. Now, it is Europe's inability to solve its
problems that is dragging down the rest of the world. Today's ECB decision
did not change the situation despite the promise of unlimited liquidity
until at least the middle of next year. The escalating banking crisis
reflects both liquidity and solvency problems and is closely linked to the
sovereign debt issues in Greece and elsewhere. The Dexia incident has made
a bank recapitalization drive more likely, but decisions are not likely to
be taken swiftly and Euro-wide. Meanwhile, the economic damage becomes
visible in more and more places. Italy and Spain are set to follow Greece
and Portugal into recession. Only Germany is holding up better than
expected, but for how long?
ECB provides more liquidity but no rate cut
Today's decision by the ECB to leave policy unchanged should not have come
as a surprise despite market hopes for a rate cut. Current headline
inflation is still the most important guide for ECB policymaking. Thus,
with the latest figure back up to 3%, a rate cut was unlikely. Even so,
the ECB has clearly changed its outlook on the Euro area and is now
speaking of 'intensified downside risks'. The announcement of additional
and extended liquidity measures as well as the resumption of the covered
bond purchase program is testimony of the ECB's concerns. In our judgment,
prevailing economic pressure will reduce headline inflation in coming
months and allow the ECB to lower the policy rate toward year end. That
should be welcome news, but is unlikely to solve the sovereign and banking
crisis.
Today was also the last ECB meeting chaired by Jean-Claude Trichet. The
transition to Mario Draghi is expected to be smooth. Draghi is viewed as
capable, experienced, skillful and sufficiently independent from political
influences. However, it is to be seen whether Draghi will have the same
level of energy as Trichet, which is enormous. Whether one agrees with his
views and decisions, Trichet has worked relentlessly behind the scenes to
keep fiscal and monetary policymakers across the Euro area focused on the
issues and move the agenda forward.
Moves to calm Euro crisis likely to emerge
The Dexia incident has been a wake-up call for the political leadership
that the repercussions of the sovereign debt crisis are very serious for
the banking systems. It also highlights the information asymmetry faced by
policymakers: Dexia passed both stress tests with top grades. Moreover,
Dexia is only the peak of the iceberg. The problem is not just banks'
sovereign risk exposures but overall risk exposures in the periphery. For
French and German banks, the overall risk exposure to Greece, Ireland,
Italy, Portugal and Spain is more than 150% of their capital and more than
30% and 20% of GDP respectively. By far the most alarming risk
concentration is the exposure of French banks to Italy.
Given the information asymmetry, only mandatory across-the-board
recapitalization measures have the potential to work and calm markets (see
US TARP experience). However, a coordinated Euro-area move seems unlikely
for political as well as practical reasons. Instead, we expect individual
countries to announce independent bank recapitalization programs between
now and the end of the year. Some countries, notably the three EFSF
program countries plus Italy and Spain, will probably get support from the
EFSF. This should help stabilize markets, but is not the final solution.
The two other immediate issues are Greece and the size of the EFSF.
- Greece will get the next tranche of the rescue package with near
certainty despite current delay. Otherwise, Greece would be forced to
declare insolvency in November. Even if the Euro group decides to let
Greece fail, it would want to do so in an orderly fashion for which
there is not enough time until November. Possible, however, is that
banks will be forced to contribute more to the Greek rescue package.
That option was mentioned by German Chancellor Merkel.
- Least clear is how Euro leaders plan to bulk up the EFSF, which seems
important. Providing more capital is politically difficult, especially
in Germany, and the ECB made clear that it will not provide credit. An
alternative is a market-based solution in which the EFSF provides only
a partial guarantee. Such structures have worked in good times, but
may not do so under uncertainty.
Little signs of weakness in Germany - so far
So far, there are few signs of acute economic stress in Germany. Leading
indicators have dropped, most notably the ZEW index, but that has not yet
translated into actual weakness. Manufacturing orders dropped 1.2% in
August, but the data is volatile due to lumpy items, especially aircraft
orders. Excluding planes, ships and trains, the average of orders in July
and August stood 4.2% annualized above the second quarter. Tomorrow's
industrial production report for August is set to show a hefty drop due to
calendar distortions, but that follows a 4.5% surge in July. Average
output in July and August is likely to come in at least 10% annualized
above the second quarter. News from the labor market also
remains positive. Unemployment continued to decline and job vacancies rose
further in September. All in all, Q3 GDP is poised to surprise on the
upside. But that is no consolation if activity drops afterwards. In our
judgment, the economy is not ripe for recession, but the drop in sentiment
and the deterioration in global economic conditions can lead to a downturn.
The balance of business expectations has shifted into negative territory
according to the IFO survey, but is not sufficiently gloomy to trigger a
recession. Business expectations and assessments of current conditions
have to shift far into negative territory until year end if recession is to
follow. Otherwise, Germany may get away with just a modest slowdown, which
is still our best guess.
Disclaimer
This analysis was prepared by Bernhard Eschweiler, Senior Economic Advisor,
and was first published 7 October 2011, Silvia Quandt Research GmbH,
Grüneburgweg 18, 60322 Frankfurt is responsible for its preparation. German
Regulatory Authority: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
(BaFin), Graurheindorfer Str. 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439
Frankfurt.
Publication according to article 5 (4) no. 3 of the German Regulation
concerning the analysis of financial instruments (Finanzanalyseverordnung):
Number of recommendations Thereof recommendations for issuers to which
from Silvia Quandt Research investment banking services were provided
during
GmbH in 2011 the preceding twelve months
Buys: 99 37
Neutral: 38 1
Avoid: 6 0
Company disclosures
Article 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz)
in combination with the German regulation concerning the analysis of
financial instruments (Finanzanalyseverordnung) requires an enterprise
preparing a securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest
with respect to the company or companies that are the subject of the
analysis. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist, in particular, if an
enterprise preparing a security analysis:
(a) holds more than 5 % of the share capital of the company or companies
analysed;
(b) has lead managed or co-lead managed a public offering of the
securities of the company or companies in the previous 12 months;
(c) has provided investment banking services for the company or companies
analysed during the last 12 months for which a compensation has been or
will be paid;
(d) is serving as a liquidity provider for the company's securities by
issuing buy and sell orders;
(e) is party to an agreement with the company or companies that is the
subject of the analysis relating to the production of the recommendation;
(f) or the analyst covering the issue has other significant financial
interests with respect to the company or companies that are the subject of
this analysis, for example holding a seat on the company's boards.
In this respective analysis the following of the above-mentioned conflicts
of interests exist: none
Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, and its affiliated
companies regularly hold shares of the analysed company or companies in
their trading portfolios. The views expressed in this analysis reflect the
personal views of the analyst about the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this
analysis. It has not been determined in advance whether and at what
intervals this report will be updated.
Equity Recommendation Definitions Silvia Quandt Research GmbH analysts rate
the shares of the companies they cover on an absolute basis using a 6 -
12-month target price. 'Buys' assume an upside of more than 10% from the
current price during the following 6 - 12-months. These securities are
expected to out-perform their respective sector indices. Securities with an
expected negative absolute performance of more than 10% and an
under-performance to their respective sector index are rated 'avoids'.
Securities where the current share price is within a 10% range of the
sector performance are rated 'neutral'. Securities prices used in this
report are closing prices of the day before publication unless a different
date is stated. With regard to unlisted securities median market prices are
used based on various important broker sources (OTC-Market).
Disclaimer This publication has been prepared and published by Silvia
Quandt Research GmbH, a subsidiary of Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG. This
publication is intended solely for distribution to professional and
business customers of Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG. It is not intended to be
distributed to private investors or private customers. Any information in
this report is based on data obtained from publicly available information
and sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees
are made by Silvia Quandt Research GmbH with regard to the accuracy or
completeness of the data or information contained in this report. The
opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgement at
this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Prior to this
publication, the analysis has not been communicated to the analysed
companies and changed subsequently. This report is for information purposes
only; it is not intended to be and should not be construed as a
recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the
securities mentioned in this report. In compliance with statutory and
regulatory provisions, Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research
GmbH have set up effective organisational and administrative arrangements
to prevent and avoid possible conflicts of interests in preparing and
transmitting analyses. These include, in particular, inhouse information
barriers (Chinese walls). These information barriers apply to any
information which is not publicly available and to which any of Silvia
Quandt & Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH or its affiliates may have
access from a business relationship with the issuer. For statutory or
contractual reasons, this information may not be used in an analysis of the
securities and is therefore not included in this report. Silvia Quandt &
Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, its affiliates and/or clients may
conduct or may have conducted transactions for their own account or for the
account of other parties with respect to the securities mentioned in this
report or related investments before the recipient has received this
report. Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH or its
affiliates, its executives, managers and employees may hold shares or
positions, possibly even short sale positions, in securities mentioned in
this report or in related investments. Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG in
particular may provide banking or other advisory services to interested
parties. Neither Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG or
its affiliates nor any of its officers, shareholders or employees accept
any liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of
this publication or its contents. Copyright and database rights protection
exists in this publication and it may not be reproduced, distributed or
published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent
of Silvia Quandt Research GmbH. All rights reserved. Any investments
referred to herein may involve significant risk, are not necessarily
available in all jurisdictions, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for
all investors. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to
herein may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. Past
performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should make
their own investment decisions without relying on this publication. Only
investors with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial matters to
evaluate the merits and risks should consider an investment in any issuer
or market discussed herein and other persons should not take any action on
the basis of this publication.
Specific notices of possible conflicts of interest with respect to issuers
or securities forming the subject of this report according to US or English
law: None
This publication is issued in the United Kingdom only to persons described
in Articles 19, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and is not intended to be distributed,
directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons (including private
investors). Neither this publication nor any copy of it may be taken or
transmitted into the United States of America or distributed, directly or
indirectly, in the United States of America.
Frankfurt am Main, 07.10.2011
Silvia Quandt Research GmbH
Grüneburgweg 1860322 Frankfurt
Tel: + 49 69 95 92 90 93 -0
Fax: + 49 69 95 92 90 93 - 11
Ende der Corporate News
---------------------------------------------------------------------
07.10.2011 Veröffentlichung einer Corporate News/Finanznachricht,
übermittelt durch die DGAP - ein Unternehmen der EquityStory AG.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber
verantwortlich.
Die DGAP Distributionsservices umfassen gesetzliche Meldepflichten,
Corporate News/Finanznachrichten und Pressemitteilungen.
Medienarchiv unter http://www.dgap-medientreff.de und
http://www.dgap.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
141584 07.10.2011